Past issues

Every edition of the daily digest — the day's most AISI-relevant AI developments, framed for capability and risk tracking.

Trends over time Coming soon

The differentiator: time-series of how AI capabilities, risks, and the governance conversation shift over time — built from the categories we already tag on every item — plus rapid-swing alerts from AI prediction markets. Charts land here next.

Prediction markets Live

AI-related markets on Manifold, polled daily. A sharp swing is an early-warning signal — we investigate the likely cause and surface it in the digest.

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?31%
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?90%
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?40%
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?94%
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?54%
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?81%

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